NFL Rough Draft Final Mock Draft
By Mike Luchene & Ray Mencio
1.Carolina Panthers: Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
This decision should have come down to Nick Fairley, Patrick Peterson, and A.J. Green. But, it appears Marty Hurney is ready to declare last year’s second round choice a wasted pick after only one season. Drafting a quarterback would make sense if Andrew Luck was here, but he isn’t…so this doesn’t. This will, however, set the pace for what is sure to be the most interesting first round in years. Ray and I agree that Newton is a late first-round pick at best, but he is set to go first overall. Wow.
2.Denver Broncos: Von Miller, DE, Texas A&M
Marcell Dareus fills a bigger need, but Von Miller is the better overall player. I’m on record as saying that Miller is going to be a Mario Williams clone in the NFL. Denver has two choices in the second round. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the team use both picks on defensive tackles. Stephen Paea would be a perfect fit.
3.Buffalo Bills: Marcell Dareus, DE, Alabama
The Bills have to stop the run. Kyle Williams is one of the most underrated players in the league, but he doesn’t have much help up front. Dareus is the best run-stuffer in the draft. The Bills are wise to pass on Blaine Gabbert in favor of a franchise defensive player.
4.Cincinnati Bengals: Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
The Bengals are a difficult team to project right now because nobody knows what’s going to happen with Chad Ochocinco and Carson Palmer. Blaine Gabbert could be an option if Palmer is traded, but Bengals owner Mike Brown has made it clear that the club isn’t planning on moving the former number one pick and a resolution to the situation won’t come for a while. We’re betting strongly against Cincinnati taking a quarterback this early. Look for the team to target Andy Dalton and Christian Ponder later. The Bengals will likely part with both T.O and Ochocinco. The pick is going to be a receiver. They favor Julio Jones over A.J. Green.
5.Arizona Cardinals: Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
We feel confident that Arizona is going to come away with either Quinn or Peterson. The problem is that we have no idea which one of the two it’ll be. Peterson is the better player, but Quinn fills the bigger need. The Cardinals could trade this pick to a team that wants to move up for either Peterson or Gabbert. A deal would likely mean that Quinn is the target. We’ll have to wait and see.
Peterson is probably the best player in the draft. The Cardinals have more pressing needs, but value is going to dictate the choice in this scenario. I can’t see Arizona drafting a quarterback. Ken Whisenhunt probably realizes he may not be able to stick around to develop whichever quarterback he would draft with this pick. I expect him to target a veteran. Kevin Kolb is a strong possibility.
6.Cleveland Browns: A.J. Green, WR, Georgia
A.J. Green is the best prospect we’ve seen at wide receiver since Calvin Johnson. Colt McCoy looked good in limited action last season and he’s going to need some help as he continues his development. Mike Holmgren will have an easy choice if Green is still on the board.
7.San Francisco 49ers: Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
The 49ers are going to draft Patrick Peterson or Prince Amukamara. Would they be willing to swap picks with Arizona in order to land the talented LSU corner? It’s been widely reported that Peterson is the top player on San Francisco’s board. Cam Jordan and J.J. Watt both make sense, but they’re long shots.
8.Tennessee Titans: Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
Fairley was a disruptive force in the middle of Auburn’s defensive line last season. His game reminds me of former Raider All-Pro Darrell Russell. I still have Fairley rated ahead of Dareus. That seemed to be the consensus after the season, but once again the pre-draft process has clouded the rankings. I keep hearing that scouts are concerned about Fairley’s personality and the fact that he was a one-year-wonder. Both of those concerns were known quantities before the season ended and it didn’t stop anyone from calling Fairley the best defensive tackle in this draft class. What changed that? It makes no sense.
9.Dallas Cowboys: J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin
For a while, it seemed as though Tyron Smith was a good bet to be the pick for Dallas. Now we’re hearing that the team may actually like Anthony Castonzo better. Prince Amukamara and Mike Pouncey remain in the mix as well. Ray and I both agree that Jerry Jones will look to trade down if he can. We’re going to project J.J. Watt as the selection, but we don’t have a ton of confidence in this one.
10.Washington Redskins: Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri
Bruce Allen and Mike Shanahan are set on drafting a quarterback in the first round. They could move up to grab Blaine Gabbert, but we believe there’s a decent possibility that the former Missouri quarterback could actually slide to #10. There’s also a chance that someone will jump up to the Cowboys’ spot, but we’re pretty certain that none of the teams currently picking in the top eight will draft him.
11.Houston Texans: Aldon Smith, OLB, Missouri
Houston has to fill a few spots in its new 3-4 front seven and Wade Phillips is rumored to be enamored with Missouri’s Aldon Smith. Prince Amukamara would be difficult to pass up and Robert Quinn is still on the board. Still, it sounds like Smith is at the top of Houston’s board at #11.
12.Minnesota Vikings: Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina
Quinn won’t fall much further than this. He’d likely be a top-5 pick if he had played in 2010. It sounds like the Vikings are targeting a defensive end with this selection. Quinn is an easy choice. The Vikings will likely address their need for a quarterback in the second round.
13.Detroit Lions: Tyron Smith, OT, USC
Matthew Stafford’s well-being is the top concern for Detroit. However, the left tackle position is overrated as a team need because of that. Jeff Backus still does an adequate job protecting the blind side. Ray and I believe the Lions will draft a tackle unless Prince Amukamara is still available.
14.St. Louis Rams: Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois
This is what I wrote about Liuget when I released my last mock draft:
“Liuget’s stock is rising as the draft approaches. I previously projected him to come off the board early in the second round to Denver, but now I’m not sure he’ll make it past the 3-4 teams in the later third of the first round. In fact, he could go as high as #14 to the Rams.”
As it turns out, he is our choice for the Rams in our final projection. Liuget has solidified his grasp on the third defensive tackle spot and he won’t have to wait long to hear his name called later tonight.
15.Miami Dolphins: Jake Locker, QB, Washington
Ray and I both believe the Dolphins are going to take a quarterback in the first round. Dalton, Mallett, and Kaepernick are all in play, but we’re going to guess it’ll be Locker. If the Dolphins pass on a quarterback, Mike Pouncey could be the choice.
16.Jacksonville Jaguars: Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue
The production and size are there. The only question I had about Kerrigan was whether or not he’d be fast enough to generate a consistent pass rush in the NFL. He answered with a 4.67 forty at the combine. The Jaguars took care of the interior of their defensive line in the 2010 draft. Now they need some reinforcements at end.
17.New England Patriots: Cam Jordan, DE, California
There is a lot of positive buzz surrounding two of this year’s top five-technique defensive ends. J.J. Watt and Cam Jordan both blew up at the combine and the Patriots would be thrilled to get either of them with the pick they acquired in the Richard Seymour deal. Of course you can never rule out a trade either. What if New England traded this pick back to Oakland for their second round pick and 2012 first round choice? The Raiders would have to think about it since Anthony Castonzo is still on the board. Ok, now back to reality.
18.San Diego Chargers: Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA
I’ve heard that the Chargers really like Akeem Ayers. I wouldn’t take Ayers over some of the players that are still on the board, but I wouldn’t have drafted Craig Davis or Larry English either.
19.New York Giants: Mike Pouncey, C, Florida
The offensive line has been one of the G-Men’s strengths for a long time. Unfortunately, the unit started to show its age last season. The Giants really like Tyron Smith and he would be the choice he falls. Pouncey would play center, although they may line him up at guard for the first year or two of his career.
20.Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Da’Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson
Nobody knows where Bowers is going to go. It just doesn’t make logical sense to slot him any higher than this. The Jags and Vikings have no reason to gamble on Bowers’ knee when Kerrigan and Quinn are on the board.
21.Kansas City Chiefs: Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin
The Chiefs could go in a number of directions with this choice. Phil Taylor is the nose tackle that the defense has lacked and there are a few quality options at receiver (Hankerson, Smith, Baldwin) as well. We’re going to project the Chiefs to take an offensive tackle though. Carimi and Castonzo would both represent the best value at this pick.
22.Indianapolis Colts: Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College
The Colts are fortunate that they’ve never had to find out how good they are without Peyton Manning and they’d like to keep it that way. The Colts cannot afford to be without their $23 million dollar (at least) quarterback and that means they can’t pass on Anthony Castonzo.
23.Philadelphia Eagles: Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado
Jimmy Smith will be the third cornerback selected in the draft. I’ve now read multiple reports that downplay his off-the-field character concerns and Smith is close to being an elite prospect.
24.New Orleans Saints: Muhammad Wilkerson, DT, Temple
The Saints should draft the top player on their board that can help the defensive front seven. That could be Wilkerson, Marvin Austin, Akeem Ayers, or Martez Wilson.
25.Seattle Seahawks: Andy Dalton, QB, TCU
The Seahawks are going to draft a quarterback and Dalton is a good fit for West Coast Offense. Christian Ponder would also be a solid choice. We like Ponder more, but Dalton seems to be generating more buzz.
26.Baltimore Ravens: Cam Heyward, DE, Ohio State
The Ravens have boasted one of the league’s best defenses over the past decade, but age is starting to catch up to them. Cam Heyward gets pushed down towards the end of the first round because of all of the depth at 3-4 defensive end this year. The Ravens could also decide to go with a local product in receiver Torrey Smith. He would give Joe Flacco a target that is capable of stretching the field.
27.Atlanta Falcons: Kyle Rudolph, TE, Notre Dame
The Falcons are going to draft Brooks Reed, Torrey Smith, or Kyle Rudolph. Defensive end appears to be the team’s top priority so we’ll give Reed the slight edge there, but Rudolph could be a luxury pick.
28.New England Patriots: Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama
The Patriots have six picks in the first three rounds so they can afford to put off more pressing needs with this choice. Ingram won’t fall out of the first round.
29.Chicago Bears: Nate Solder, OT, Baylor
This is an easy one. The Bears have to get better up front and Solder may have more potential than any other tackle in this class.
30.New York Jets: Phil Taylor, NT, Baylor
The Jets had a terrific defense again in 2010, but the front seven is in bad shape. Akeem Ayers could be in play since outside linebacker is a bigger area of concern than nose tackle, but Taylor is the better overall player. There aren’t many 3-4 nose tackles worthy of being top 100 picks and the Jets traded their second round choice for Antonio Cromartie.
31.Pittsburgh Steelers: Aaron Williams, CB, Texas
The Steelers are trying to trade down. If they can’t, they’ll likely take a cornerback. The choice could come down to Ras-I Dowling and Aaron Williams. They’re also high on Cam Heyward, but he isn’t available in this projection.
32.Green Bay Packers: Brooks Reed, OLB, Arizona
Ray and I would take Mikel Leshoure or Leonard Hankerson with this pick. The Packers have plenty of options. Reed could thrive playing opposite Clay Matthews.
33. New England Patriots: Derek Sherrod, OT, Mississippi State
The Patriots continue to rack up value. Let’s be honest…They’ll probably have made 17 trades already before this selection is made…by another team.
34. Buffalo Bills: Christian Ponder, QB, Florida State
Andre Reed will make good on his tweet to the Senior Bowl MVP.
35. Cincinnati Bengals: Mikel Leshoure, RB, Illinois
Maybe Carson Palmer will change his mind if the Bengals start rebuilding their offense. Leshoure is clearly the second best running back in the draft.
36. Denver Broncos: Marvin Austin, DT, North Carolina
Austin solidified himself as a solid late first/second round choice with a strong showing at North Carolina’s Pro Day. He’ll plug the middle for the Broncos.
37. Cleveland Browns: Jabaal Sheard, DE, Pittsburgh
Nobody is talking about Sheard as a potential first round pick, but don’t be surprised if he crashes the party later tonight.
38. Arizona Cardinals: Taiwan Jones, RB, Eastern Washington
I really believe Jones will find a home in the second round. He’s the most explosive back in this class.
39. Tennessee Titans: Colin Kaepernick, QB, Nevada
Kaepernick could be Miami’s pick at #15. The Titans won’t pass in the second round.
40. Dallas Cowboys: Ras-I Dowling, CB, Virginia Tech
If Dowling is able to stay healthy, he’ll be the next best corner in this draft behind the big three.
41. Washington Redskins: Torrey Smith, WR, Maryland
Smith could be the third receiver off the board. We like Hankerson, but Smith is a no-brainer for the Skins in the second round. Santana Moss is a free agent and Anthony Armstrong isn’t very good.
42. Houston Texans: Brandon Harris, CB, Miami
Some experts have Harris sneaking into the first round. I don’t see it. The middle of the second round is about where he belongs.
43. Minnesota Vikings: Leonard Hankerson, WR, Miami
Hankerson has a first round grade in our book. But, he may last until the middle of the second round.
44. Detroit Lions: Davon House, CB, New Mexico State
House is a player that nobody is talking about as a first round possibility, but it shouldn’t surprise anyone if that’s where he comes off the board.
45. San Francisco 49ers: Chris Carter, OLB, Fresno State
Curtis Marsh told us Carter was the best defensive player (other than himself) in the WAC last year. We agree.
46. Denver Broncos: Stephen Paea, DT, Oregon State
The Broncos can’t stop the run and Paea is a run-stopping specialist. The defensive line goes from being garbage to gold within 24 hours.
47. St. Louis Rams: Jon Baldwin, WR, Pittsburgh
Baldwin has inconsistent hands and a questionable motor. Otherwise, his blend of size and speed wouldn’t get past the Rams in the first round.
48. Oakland Raiders: Jah Reid, OT, Central Florida
The Raiders covet size on the offensive line. If Oakland can’t move up for a higher ranked tackle like Castonzo or Sherrod, Reid could be the pick.
49. Jacksonville Jaguars: Curtis Brown, CB, Texas
Curtis Brown is higher than Aaron Williams on our board, but each team could have drastically different cornerback rankings after Peterson and Amukamara.
50. San Diego Chargers: Jarvis Jenkins, DE, Clemson
Jenkins was overshadowed by teammate Da’Quan Bowers. He does everything well.
51. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa
I hesitate to put Clayborn this high and I roll me eyes every time I hear someone say that he is “falling.” Clayborn didn’t play well last year. He isn’t tall enough to play 3-4 end or fast enough to generate a consistent pass rush at 3-4 outside linebacker or 4-3 end. He isn’t big enough to be more than a rotational player as a 4-3 tackle. He has Erb’s palsy which will limit him to playing right defensive end in a 4-3. I don’t understand why anyone had him ranked as a first round prospect to begin with. He isn’t the stud prospect everyone thought he was after his junior campaign. The Bucs are rumored to be high on him. Otherwise I wouldn’t even have him in the second round.
52. New York Giants: Ryan Williams, RB, Virginia Tech
New York’s situation at running back is cloudy right now. Williams is a boom or bust prospect. If the Giants get the 2009 version of the former Hokie, then they’ll get top-10 overall value out of the 52nd selection in the draft.
53. Indianapolis Colts: James Carpenter, OT, Alabama
Carpenter and Catonzo give the Colts a much needed new starting tandem at tackle.
54. Philadelphia Eagles: Danny Watkins, OG, Baylor
Watkins is capable of stepping right into the starting lineup at right tackle. He could be a target for Philadelphia in the 1st round.
55. Kansas City Chiefs: Randall Cobb, WR, Kentucky
The Chiefs don’t have a quality receiver other than Dwayne Bowe.
56. New Orleans Saints: Martez Wilson, MLB, Illinois
It wouldn’t surprise us if Wilson is an option for New Orleans in the first round.
57. Seattle Seahawks: Rodney Hudson, OG/C, Florida State
Rudson can play guard or center. He’s a fit next to Max Unger.
58. Baltimore Ravens: Titus Young, WR, Boise State
Contrary to popular belief, Titus Young isn’t DeSean Jackson and that’s why he won’t get drafted until the end of the second round.
59. Atlanta Falcons: Jerrel Jernigan, WR, Troy
I’m really surprised by the lack of hype around Jernigan this offseason. The NFL hurt his stock by moving kickoffs to the 35, but the all-time leading receiver in Sun-Belt Conference history still won’t fall out of the second round.
60. New England Patriots: Justin Houston, OLB, Georgia
The Patriots have to add a pass rusher. Houston is extremely athletic and specializes in rushing the passer.
61. San Diego Chargers: Greg Little, WR, North Carolina
The Chargers like big tall receivers. Little fits the mold.
62. Chicago Bears: Jurrell Casey, DT, USC
The Bears addressed offensive tackle in the first round and they’ll take a defensive tackle here.
63. Pittsburgh Steelers: Marcus Gilbert, OT, Florida
The Steelers may lose Flozell Adams and Willie Colon.
64. Green Bay Packers: Clint Boling, OG, Georgia
The packers should look to upgrade at guard early in the draft. Danny Watkins could be an option in the first round. Boling is a fit here.
65. Carolina Panthers: Terrell McClain, DT, South Florida
We knew the Panthers would take Cam Newton over Marcell Dareus once the team met with McClain last week.
66. Cincinnati Bengals: Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas
The Bengals wouldn’t be able to pass on Mallett in the third round.
67. Denver Broncos: Rahim Moore, S, UCLA
Moore is at the top of a weak safety class. The Broncos continue to rebuild their defense.
68. Buffalo Bills: Sam Acho, OLB, Texas
The Patriots will probably trade one of these picks for a 2012 selection. The additions of Acho and Justin Houston solve the team’s pass rushing problems.
69. Arizona Cardinals: Dontay Moch, OLB, Nevada
There were whispers that Moch was going to run a forty time in the 4.2’s at the combine. That didn’t happen, but he was still one of the fastest players on display.
70. Cleveland Browns: Ben Ijalana, OL, Villanova
The Browns pick up another immediate starter at either right guard or right tackle.
71. Dallas Cowboys: Orlando Franklin, OT, Miami
Franklin will have to pass a medical check on his knee.
72. New Orleans Saints: Allen Bailey, DE, Miami
I’m not sold on Bailey because I doubt his ability to rush the passer. There’s no denying his athletic ability though, and he’ll most likely come off the board in round 2 or 3.
73. Houston Texans: Kenrick Ellis, NT, Hampton
Ellis has first-round talent, but he wasn’t able to keep himself out of trouble at South Carolina.
74. New England Patriots: Edmund Gates, WR, Abilene Christian
New England needs a receiver to stretch the field and Gates was the fastest receiver at the combine.
75. Detroit Lions: Bruce Carter, OLB, North Carolina
The Lions don’t have much at either outside linebacker position. Carter would become an immediate starter.
76. San Francisco 49ers: Ricky Stanzi, QB, Iowa
Stanzi is a good fit for the West Coast Offense.
77. Tennessee Titans: Will Rackley, OG, Lehigh
The Titans have to sure up the interior of their offensive line.
78. St. Louis Rams: Chris Culliver, S, South Carolina
Culliver may have been the consensus top safety in this draft class if he had stayed healthy this past season. O.J. Atogwe is in Washington and St. Louis is left with major holes at both safety positions.
79. Miami Dolphins: John Moffitt, OG, Wisconsin
This pick will either be a running back or an investment in the health of whichever quarterback the team drafts in the first round.
80. Jacksonville Jaguars: Quinton Carter, S, Oklahoma
The Jags need addressed the cornerback position in the 2nd round, but safety is also an area of concern.
81. Oakland Raiders: Stefen Wisniewski, OG/C, Penn State
Wisniewski’s uncle was an 8-time pro bowler for the Raiders and was just hired as an assistant offensive line coach. More importantly, the Raiders are set to lose Robert Gallery in free agency and have to find another interior offensive lineman to add to the mix which currently includes Bruce Campbell and Daniel Loper. Wisniewski could also start at center if Samson Satele isn’t retained.
82. San Diego Chargers: Luke Stocker, TE, Tennessee
Tight end (obviously) isn’t a huge need for the Chargers, but it wouldn’t hurt to have some depth in case Antonio Gates misses time again. Stocker is an excellent value this late in the third round.
83. New York Giants: Mason Foster, MLB, Washington
Denver continues to improve its run defense.
84. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Greg Jones, MLB, Michigan State
This is a good fit for both the team and the player. Jones isn’t very fast, but he was one of the best linebackers in college football during his time at Michigan State. He could succeed in the NFL as part of Tampa’s modified Cover-2 defense.
85. Philadelphia Eagles: Quan Sturdivant, OLB, North Carolina
Sturdivant was once looked at as a likely first round selection, but his production took a hit in 2010 when many of his defensive teammates were suspended.
86. Kansas City Chiefs: Daniel Thomas, RB, Kansas State
Thomas Jones is old and another back is needed to serve as a complement to Jamaal Charles.
87. Indianapolis Colts: Denarius Moore, WR, Tennessee
The Colts have to find another receiver since Anthony Gonzalez and Austin Collie are always hurt. Moore is underrated. He was victimized by poor quarterback play at Tennessee.
88. New Orleans Saints: Tyler Sash, S, Iowa
Sash was a playmaker at Iowa. He isn’t freakishly athletic, but he’s a solid football player.
89. San Diego Chargers: Kendall Hunter, RB, Oklahoma State
Hunter can run, catch, and block. He’s a technically sound player that put up big numbers at Oklahoma State.
90. Baltimore Ravens: Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, Oregon State
Rodgers has been one of the most electrifying players in the Pac-10 over the past three years. The combine hurt his stock, but he rebounded with a mid-4.4 forty at his Pro Day.
91. Atlanta Falcons: DeMarco Murray, RB, Oklahoma
The Falcons will be in the market for a new backup to Michael Turner.
92. New England Patriots: Demarcus Van Dyke, CB, Miami
DVD was the fastest corner at the combine.
93. Chicago Bears: Chimdi Chekwa, CB, Ohio State
Tim Jennings got torched by Aaron Rodgers in the NFC Championship Game.
94. New York Jets: James Brewer, OT, Indiana
I know Jets’ fans want to see a pass rusher here, but who would it be? Brewer fills a hole at right tackle. He’s a boom or bust prospect.
95. Pittsburgh Steelers: Curtis Marsh, CB, Utah State
Marsh is going to need some coaching because of his inexperience at cornerback, but he is one of the best athletes in the draft.
96. Green Bay Packers: Lance Kendricks, TE, Wisconsin
This is a luxury pick for Green Bay. There’s no depth behind Jermichael Finley.
97. Carolina Panthers: Rob Housler, TE, Florida Atlantic
Jeremy Shockey is only a temporary solution. Housler was the fastest tight end at the combine.
98. Carolina Panthers: Drake Nevis, DT, LSU
Nevis is an outstanding value. He can rush the passer from the interior of the revamped Carolina defensive line.
99. Seattle Seahawks: Marcus Gilchrist, S, Clemson
Seattle was routinely torched through the air last season. Help is needed at both corner and safety.
100. Buffalo Bills: Jaiquawn Jarrett, S, Temple
Jarrett will make an NFL roster next year because of his ability on special teams.
101. Cincinnati Bengals: Ricky Elmore, DE, Arizona
Elmore is a pass rush specialist that can help Cincinnati’s defense get to the quarterback more often than it did last season.
102. Cleveland Browns: Chistian Ballard, DT, Iowa.
Ballard may fall out of the top-100 after reports surfaced that he failed a drug test at the combine.
103. Arizona Cardinals: Greg Romeus, OLB, Pittsburgh
Romeus is a steal if he can stay healthy. However, that may never happen.
104. Philadelphia Eagles: Shareece Wright, CB, USC
Wright really came on as a senior. His best football is in front of him.
105. Houston Texans: Brandon Burton, CB, Utah
The Texans would have been a playoff team in 2010 had it not been for their inability to defend against the pass.
106. Minnesota Vikings: D.J. Williams, TE, Arkansas
The Vikings have more holes than they can fill in one draft.
107. Detroit Lions: Jordan Todman, RB, Connecticut
Jahvid Best had a rough rookie season. He could still prove to be a starting-caliber back, but the Lions have no depth behind him.
108. San Francisco 49ers: Greg Salas, WR, Hawaii
Salas had close to 2,000 receiving yards last season at Hawaii.
109. Tennessee Titans: Lawrence Wilson, OLB, Connecticut
The Titans would have to jump at the chance to add an immediate starter in the 4th round.
110. Dallas Cowboys: Vincent Brown, WR, San Diego State
Brown didn’t time well at the combine, but he had an impressive career at San Diego State and a good week of practice at the Senior Bowl.
111. Miami Dolphins: Chris Conte, S, California
Conte is still relatively inexperienced at free safety. It’s probably the only reason he lasts until the 4th round.
112. St. Louis Rams: Shane Vereen, RB, California
The Rams have to find a more reliable runner behind Steven Jackson.
113. Oakland Raiders: Jordan Cameron, TE, USC
Zach Miller will be around for a long time, but the Raiders only carried two tight ends last year and Brandon Myers took a step backward.
114. Jacksonville Jaguars: K.J. Wright, OLB, Mississippi State
Wright would compete for the job at weakside linebacker.
115. San Francisco 49ers: Steven Friday, OLB, Virginia Tech
Friday registered 8.5 sacks last season for the Hockies.
116. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Johnny Patrick, CB, Louisville
Aqib Tailb’s future is uncertain.
117. New York Giants: Kris O’Dowd, C, USC
Shaun O’Hara isn’t as reliable as he used to be. O’Dowd or Pouncey could shift over to guard.
118. Kansas City Chiefs: Niles Paul, WR, Nebraska
Expect the Chiefs to draft more than one receiver.
119. Indianapolis Colts: Martin Parker, DT, Richmond
Parker tallied two sacks to earn MVP of the East-West Shrine Game.
120. Philadelphia Eagles: DeAndre McDaniel, S, Clemson
McDaniel is a textbook example of a strong safety. He isn’t fast enough to be relied upon in coverage down the field, but he should develop into a quality in-the-box safety in the NFL.
121. Jacksonville Jaguars: Ronald Johnson, WR, USC
Mike Thomas is a burner. Jacksonville could use a possession receiver to team him with.
122. Buffalo Bills: Aldrick Robinson, WR, SMU
Lee Evans may be released. Robinson is a similar receiver. He can stretch the field.
123. Baltimore Ravens: Jason Pinkston, OT, Pittsburgh
Pinkston could begin his career as the team’s top reserve tackle and eventually develop into a starter on the strong side.
124. Atlanta Falcons: Jalil Brown, CB, Colorado
The Falcons could use Brown as a cornerback or develop him as a safety.
125. New England Patriots: Derek Newton, OT, Arkansas State
Newton is an intriguing developmental prospect that dominated the Sun-Belt Conference.
126. New York Jets: Markus White, OLB, Florida State
White didn’t help himself with poor workout numbers at the combine, but his production on the field with Florida State shouldn’t be overlooked.
127. Chicago Bears: Stephen Schilling, OG, Michigan
Stop me if you’ve heard this before. The Bears have to get better at protecting Jay Cutler.
128. Pittsburgh Steelers: Alex Henery, K, Nebraska
Shaun Suisham missed a field goal in the Super Bowl by about 90 yards.
129. Green Bay Packers: Austin Pettis, WR, Boise State
The Packers are deep at receiver, but they have to be because of the offense’s reliance on the passing game.
130. Tennessee Titans: Ian Williams, DT, Notre Dame
Williams will be an immediate contributor to Tennessee’s rotation at defensive tackle.
131. Green Bay Packers: David Arkin, OG, Missouri State
Arkin is underrated. He’ll develop into a starting guard and have a long NFL career.
132. Carolina Panthers: Virgil Green, TE, Nevada
Jeremy Shockey is only a temporary answer.
133. Buffalo Bills: Colin McCarthy, ILB, Miami
McCarthy should develop into a starter. At worse, he’ll be an exceptional player on special teams.
134. Cincinnati Bengals: Kai Forbath, K, UCLA
Alex Henery is the clear-cut best kicker in the draft, but Forbath is easily second.
135. Kansas City Chiefs: Joseph Barksdale, OT, LSU
Barksdale should have a long career as a top reserve tackle.
136. Arizona Cardinals: Henry Hynoski, FB, Pittsburgh
Hynoski is a useful blocker who can also run and catch the ball.
137. Cleveland Browns: Jerrell Powe, NT, Mississippi
Powe will fill the large void left by the departure of Shaun Rogers.
138. Houston Texans: Kelvin Sheppard, ILB, LSU
The Texans continue to add fresh blood to their defense by upgrading at inside linebacker.
139. Minnesota Vikings: Cortez Allen, CB, Citadel
There are a few small-school cornerbacks in this draft class that have intriguing potential. Allen is one of them.
140. Kansas City Chiefs: Stanley Havili, FB, USC
Havili has more skill with the ball than any of the other fullbacks in this draft.
141. San Francisco 49ers: Owen Marecic, FB, Stanford
Jim Harbaugh has firsthand knowledge of Marecic’s value. He started at linebacker with Stanford and will be a core special teams player in the NFL.
142. Tennessee Titans: Jamie Harper, RB, Clemson
Chris Johnson isn’t going anywhere, but Harper is capable of bringing the thunder in a relief role.
143. Dallas Cowboys: Cedric Thornton, DE, Southern Arkansas
Thornton would provide depth at defensive end.
144. Washington Redskins: Delone Carter, RB, Syracuse
Mike Shanahan and Bruce Allen will draft a running back on the third day of the draft.
145. St. Louis Rams: Sione Fua, DT, Stanford
The Rams are thin at defensive tackle.
146. Miami Dolphins: Ricardo Lockette, WR, Fort Valley State
The Dolphins could use a receiver that can stretch the field.
147. Jacksonville Jaguars: Greg McElroy, QB, Alabama
McElroy is Ray’s biggest sleeper this year.
148. Oakland Raiders: Buster Skrine, CB, Tennessee-Chattanooga
Al Davis loves speedsters and small-school guys (recent examples: Jacoby Ford and Jared Veldheer).
149: Philadelphia Eagles: Andre Smith, TE, Virginia Tech
Smith is the best blocking tight end in the draft.
150. Minnesota Vikings: Robert Sands, S, West Virginia
Sands always seems to be able to get to the ball and make a play on it. He’s a little tall for the position, but this is a good value.
151. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Kendric Burney, CB, North Carolina
Burney isn’t big or fast. He’s just always around the ball. He’ll also contribute as a core special teams player.
152. Indianapolis Colts: DeMarcus Love, OG, Arkansas
Love isn’t quick enough to play tackle in the NFL, but he’ll be a productive guard.
153. Philadelphia Eagles: Anthony Sherman, FB, Connecticut
Sherman might be the best blocking tight end in the draft and he’ll play a key role on special teams as well.
154. Detroit Lions: Alex Green, RB, Hawaii
Green would be used strictly as a short-yardage back.
155. Washington Redskins: Chris Neild, NT, West Virginia
Neild may get over-drafted by a 3-4 team that needs a nose tackle.
156. Seattle Seahawks: Lee Ziemba, OG, Auburn
The Seahawks are going to look for a solution at offensive guard during this offseason.
157. Seattle Seahawks: Casey Matthews, MLB, Oregon
Matthews is an instinctive player that could provide depth.
158. Atlanta Falcons: Jeremy Beal, DE, Oklahoma
The reigning Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year may not be fast enough to play in the NFL. On the other hand, the team that drafts him could be rewarded with a late-round steal. Sometimes measurables don’t tell the whole story. Beal is certainly worth a gamble near the end of the 5th round.
159. New England Patriots: Charlie Gantt, TE, Michigan State
Rob Gronkowski is a complete tight end and Aaron Hernandez is a receiving specialist. Gantt is a blocking specialist with a little bit of ability as a pass-catcher. The bottom line is that there is no way the Pats are going to use all of their 300 picks in this draft.
160. Chicago Bears: Justin Rogers, CB, Richmond
Rogers could come off the board as early as the third round.
161. New York Jets: Ryan Jones, CB, Northwest Missouri State
Jones and Richmond’s Justin Rogers are two corners that seem to be sliding under the radar when it comes to media coverage. Both could land in the third round. Jones will provide an immediate impact on special teams.
162. Pittsburgh Steelers: Julius Thomas, TE, Portland State
Thomas is a converted basketball player who played surprisingly well during his only season as a college football player at Portland State.
163. Green Bay Packers: Ahmad Black, S, Florida
Black consistently made plays for the Gators, but he won’t get drafted before the 5th round because he is short and slow.
164. Baltimore Ravens: Jeff Maehl, WR, Oregon
Far too many slot receivers are compared to New England’s Wes Welker. Maehl, however, fits the bill.
165. Baltimore Ravens: Richard Sherman, CB, Stanford
Sherman is a 6-3 195 lb. corner that has 4.50 speed. He needs a lot of coaching though and his instincts aren’t great.
166. Carolina Panthers: Pat Devlin, QB, Delaware
Jimmy Clausen is getting another year in this scenario. Devlin is insurance in case the former Notre Dame quarterback doesn’t show improvement this season.
167. Cincinnati Bengals: Cecil Shorts, WR, Mount Union
There’s a decent chance the Bengals will part with both of their starting receivers.
168. Cleveland Browns: Roy Helu, RB, Nebraska
Montario Hardesty will be back this season, but Helu provides Cleveland with a change-of-pace back.
169. Buffalo Bills: Lawrence Guy, DE, Arizona State
The Bills are thin at defensive end.
170. Cleveland Browns: Trevis Turner, OG, Abilene Christian
I have Turner rated as one of this year’s biggest sleepers. He has the size to be a force on the right side of an NFL team’s offensive line.
171. Arizona Cardinals: Byron Stingily, OT, Louisville
Stingily put on a show at Louisville’s Pro Day.
172. Minnesota Vikings: Deunta Williams, S, North Carolina
Williams was a projected first round pick back in September, but a less than stellar senior campaign and broken leg have pushed him down into a late round projection.
173. Seattle Seahawks: Roberto Davis, DE, Northwest Missouri State
Davis would serve as a pass rush specialist.
174. San Francisco 49ers: Derek Hall, OL, Stanford
Hall could play both guard and tackle in a reserve role.
175. Tennessee Titans: Nate Irving, MLB, South Carolina
This is probably about as low as I can see Irving coming off the board. The Titans would be lucky to get a potential rookie starter in the 6th round.
176. Dallas Cowboys: Chris Hairston, OL, Clemson
Hairston was an All-ACC left tackle for Clemson, but he needs to be coached in order to make a successful transition to the pro game. He is certainly worth a gamble in the 6th round.
177. Washington Redskins: Mark Herzlich, ILB, Boston College
Usually teams draft players based on how good they are projected to be in the future. Unfortunately, Herzlich will be drafted by a team hoping he can return to the playing level he displayed before he was diagnosed with cancer. We’re all hoping he gets there.
178. Houston Texans: Chris Prosinski, S, Wyoming
Prosinski is a smart player and a reliable tackler. He ran a 4.39 forty at his Pro Day and will certainly be drafted. Don’t be surprised if he sneaks into the third round.
179. Miami Dolphins: Zack Pianalto, TE, North Carolina
I can’t help but to wonder where Pianalto would be projected if he hadn’t suffered a broken leg in the middle of the season. I’d probably have a 3rd round grade on him. He’s still worth a look in the 5th or 6th.
180. Baltimore Ravens: Chykie Brown, CB, Texas
Aaron Williams is getting more hype, but Brown was also a productive corner at Texas and should have a future in the NFL.
181. Oakland Raiders: Joe Lefeged, S, Rutgers
Michael Huff may leave before the offseason is over. Lefeged would provide competition for Mike Mitchell, Stevie Brown, and Hiram Eugene.
182. Jacksonville Jaguars: Josh Thomas, CB, Buffalo
The Jaguars have holes at corner and safety.
183. San Diego Chargers: David Mims, OT, Virginia Union
It’s late in the draft so there are no sure bets. However, Mims has prototypical size (6-8, 330 lbs.) to play guard or right tackle.
184. Arizona Cardinals: Tori Gurley, WR, South Carolina
I’d be willing to bet that there are a wide range of views on Gurley’s value throughout the league right now. On one hand, he’s big and sure-handed. On the other hand, he isn’t very fast and didn’t put up great numbers at South Carolina.
185. New York Giants: Chas Henry, P, Florida
Walk up to a Giants’ fan and ask for his/her opinion on Matt Dodge.
186. Denver Broncos: Tandon Doss, WR, Indiana
Doss is finally healthy after a groin injury prevented him from working out for most of the offseason.
187. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Kenny Rowe, DE, Oregon
Rowe’s workout numbers are going to hurt his draft stock. He ran his forty in the 4.9 range at his Pro Day. Still, he managed 16.5 TFL, 7 sacks, and 5 forced fumbles last season for Oregon.
188. Indianapolis Colts: Rashad Carmichael, CB, Virginia Tech
Carmichael could get pushed down the board because he’s strictly a zone cornerback. That works in favor of Indianapolis here.
189. Denver Broncos: Lee Smith, TE, Marshall
Smith is a blocking specialist.
190. San Francisco 49ers: Thomas Keiser, OLB, Stanford
Keiser has potential as a 3-4 outside linebacker.
191. Baltimore Ravens: Zach Hurd, OG, Connecticut
The Ravens have a lot of question marks along the offensive line right now.
192. Atlanta Falcons: Dane Sanzenbacher, WR, Ohio State
Sanzenbacher could be a fit in the slot for the Falcons.
193. New England Patriots: Mistral Raymond, S, South Florida
Raymond would be used exclusively on special teams for the Patriots.
194. New York Jets: DeMarco Sampson, WR, San Diego State
Sampson could be a clone of Braylon Edwards.
195. Chicago Bears: Reid Forrest, P, Washington State
Reid Forrest almost won the Heisman last season. Only about 1% of the people that read that joke will understand it.
196. Pittsburgh Steelers: Kevin Rutland, DB, Missouri
The Steelers could use Rutland as an extra defensive back. They’re thin at the cornerback position.
197. Green Bay Packers: Da’Norris Searcy, S, North Carolina
Searcy quietly enjoyed a productive career at North Carolina while his teammates received more hype.
198. New York Giants: Armon Binns, WR, Cincinnati
Ramses Barden is always injured and Steve Smith is recovering from ACL sugery.
199. Kansas City Chiefs: Jeron Johnson, S, Boise State
Johnson was a tackling machine at Boise State.
200. Minnesota Vikings: Pernell McPhee, DE, Mississippi State
McPhee could go a lot higher than this, but I doubt his ability to rush the passer.
201. San Diego Chargers: Taylor Potts, QB, Texas Tech
Potts would obviously be groomed as a backup quarterback.
202. New York Giants: Pierre Allen, DE, Nebraska
Allen is a solid value at the end of the 6th round. He’ll play tough against the run and that’ll earn him a spot in the top eight of an NFL defensive line.
203. Carolina Panthers: Terrance Toliver, WR, LSU
I think Toliver is going to end up getting drafted a lot later than most people think. His production has never met the level that his athleticism would indicate he is capable of reaching.
204. Green Bay Packers: Tyrod Taylor, QB, Virginia Tech
The Packers didn’t carry a third quarterback for most of last season. Taylor can fill that role while also contributing as a receiver.
205. Detroit Lions: Scott Lutrus, OLB, Connecticut
Lutrus had an impressive workout in Indianapolis. He can contribute as a backup linebacker and special teams player if he can stay healthy.
206. Buffalo Bills: Keith Darbut, OLB, Baldwin-Wallace
Darbut has sub-4.40 speed. That’s intriguing potential in the 7th round.
207. Cincinnati Bengals: Shiloh Keo, S, Idaho
Keo is a depth player that can play special teams.
208. New York Jets: Weslye Saunders, TE, South Carolina
Saunders has had a rough offseason. He’s battled through injury and eligibility questions, but has a lot of potential for a 7th round pick.
209. Seattle Seahawks: Cliff Matthews, DE, South Carolina
Matthews could be a useful player against the run in a rotation.
210. Atlanta Falcons: Jarrard Tarrant, S, Georgia Tech
Tarrant fits as both a free safety and dime back.
211. San Francisco 49ers: Stevan Ridley, RB, LSU
Frank Gore and Anthony Dixon are still around, but Ridley is just a good value.
212. Tennessee Titans: Jermale Hines, S, Ohio State
Hines was one of the most productive safeties in college football in 2010.
213. Washington Redskins: Da’Rel Scott, RB, Maryland
Scott’s 4.40 combine forty will get him drafted.
214. Houston Texans: Loyce Means, CB, Houston
Means somehow managed to score three touchdowns in the Eastham Energy All-Star Game.
215. Minnesota Vikings: Jeremy Kerley, WR, TCU
Kerely could end up making a team as a slot receiver.
216. St. Louis Rams: Schuylar Oordt, TE, Northern Iowa
The Rams already have a developmental prospect in Fendi Onobun, but Oordt may be able to beat him out for a roster spot.
217. Miami Dolphins: Tim Barnes, C, Missouri
The Dolphins have to upgrade the interior of their offensive line.
218. Miami Dolphins: Keith Williams, OG, Nebraska
Refer to selection #217.
219. Oakland Raiders: Mana Silva, S, Hawaii
Silva could actually be in the 4th round mix after a strong Pro Day.
220. Dallas Cowboys: Bilal Powell, RB, Louisville
Marion Barber appears to have played his last down in Dallas.
221. New York Giants: Derrick Locke, RB, Kansas State
Locke has a chance to make the team as a change-of-pace back.
222. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Brandon Hogan, CB, West Virginia
Hogan is a good fit with the Bucs. He could develop into a starter.
223. Kansas City Chiefs: Wayne Daniels, OLB, TCU
Daniels has a chance to make a team as a pass rush specialist.
224. Washington Redskins: T.J. Yates, QB, North Carolina
Yates could develop into a solid backup.
225. Baltimore Ravens: Ryan Winterswyk, DE, Boise State
Winterswyk has to put on about 20 pounds. If he can do that, he’ll be able to make an NFL roster.
226. New Orleans Saints: Charles Clay, TE, Tulsa
Clay is an H-back. He’s versatile enough to make a roster.
227. Philadelphia Eagles: Collin Franklin, TE, Iowa State
Franklin will definitely get drafted and I’ll bet that he makes a team.
228. St. Louis Rams: Colin Jones, S, TCU
Jones had a productive career at TCU and he passes the eye test as an athlete.
229. Atlanta Falcons: Josh Portis, QB, California (PA)
The Falcons don’t have enough roster spots for all of these draft picks. Portis could be groomed as a backup.
230. Atlanta Falcons: Eric Gordon, OLB, Michigan State
Gordon could be a very good special teams player.
231. San Francisco 49ers: Scotty McKnight, WR, Colorado
McKnight had his friend Mark Sanchez throwing passes to him at Colorado’s Pro Day.
232. Pittsburgh Steelers: Ryan Donahue, P, Iowa
Daniel Sepulveda tears his ACL every year.
233. Green Bay Packers: Raymond Webber, WR, Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Webber has size and speed. He’s worth a flyer late in the draft.
234. San Diego Chargers: Preston Dial, FB, Alabama
This would be a strong draft for San Diego.
235. Miami Dolphins: Brandon Fusco, OL, Slippery Rock
Fusco provides depth at center and guard.
236. Minnesota Vikings: Josh Jasper, K, LSU
The Vikings would have to love this draft class. They filled a lot of needs.
237. Philadelphia Eagles: Zane Taylor, OL, Utah
Taylor provides interior offensive line depth.
238. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Anthony Allen, RB, Georgia Tech
Allen probably won’t be drafted until late, but he could be a productive back. I like him better than I liked Jonathan Dwyer a year ago.
239. San Francisco 49ers: Ryan Whalen, WR, Stanford
It isn’t a coincidence that I have four Stanford players landing in San Francisco.
240. Philadelphia Eagles: Justin Boren, OG, Ohio State
Boren will have a chance to make the team as a backup guard.
241. Oakland Raiders: Ryan Bartholomew, C, Syracuse
Bartholomew turned heads with his impressive workout at the NFL Scouting Combine.
242. Seattle Seahawks: Vidal Hazelton, WR, Cincinnati
Pete Carroll recruited him. He’s an interesting prospect.
243. New Orleans Saints: Anthony Gaitor, CB, Florida International
The Saints don’t have enough room on their roster for all of these picks, but Gaitor is certainly a nice value in the 7th round.
244. Carolina Panthers: Josh Bynes, MLB, Auburn
Bynes will make the team so that makes him a good pick.
245. Buffalo Bills: Allen Bradford, RB, USC
Bradford is a good long-term complement to C.J. Spiller.
246. Cincinnati Bengals: Ugo Chinasa, DE, Oklahoma State
Chinasa is a decent value in the 7th round. He has a chance to make the roster since the Bengals are so thin at defensive end.
247. Denver Broncos: Mike Higgins, TE, Nebraska-Omaha
Higgins could potentially start for Denver. I know John Fox doesn’t really utilize the tight end position as much as other coaches do, but he’d have to jump at the opportunity to draft a potential starter in the 7th round.
248. Cleveland Browns: Andre Holmes, WR, Hillsdale
Holmes is going to get drafted and he is going to make a team. There’s a very good chance we could look back at this draft and wonder how he was still on the board in the later rounds.
249. Arizona Cardinals: Dwayne Harris, WR, East Carolina
The Cardinals are thin at receiver.
250. San Francisco 49ers: Andrew Jackson, OG, Fresno State
Jackson is a good value and has a chance to make the team as a reserve guard.
251. Tennessee Titans: Mike McNeill, TE, Nebraska
McNeill may be able to push a couple of the other tight ends on the roster to earn a spot with the Titans.
252. Dallas Cowboys: Mario Harvey, ILB, Marshall
Harvey would make the squad as a core special teams player. He has the potential to develop into a starter at inside linebacker.
253. Washington Redskins: Brandon Smith, WR, Arizona State
Smith had an impressive Pro Day and possesses ideal size. He has a chance to get drafted late.
254. Houston Texans: Troy Weatherhead, QB, Hillsdale
Ok, I’m completely ignoring what Houston might actually do with this selection in favor of slotting in a player that I think has some potential. Nobody is talking about Weatherhead. He completed 76.9% of his passes and threw 26 touchdowns and only 6 interceptions in 2010. Weatherhead has ideal size for a pro quarterback and his arm is at least good enough for the NFL. I’m not saying he’ll be the next Tony Romo. He’s just my top deep sleeper for the 2011 draft.